POLICY AND BUSINESS DECISION-MAKING IMPLICATIONS.
Port Authority of NYNJ and other urban and regional planning authorities, such as NYCEDC will have to follow this trend and make new infrastructure investments to support this new mobility pattern. It will require rethinking their mandatory investment geography, making it regional instead of mainly urban. Most urban development institutions should now rely on close partnerships between 4 states - NY, NJ, PA and CT.
Airport connections through express public transit lines could become a competitive advantage for both Midtown and suburban residences of hybrid workers. By making airports like Liberty, JFK, and LaGuardia convenient halfway stop between Midtown and the Greater NY region, commuters will be motivated to stick with Midtown as the major place of social and business activity.
The indifference to travel time caused by hybrid work might temporarily reduce the need for new infrastructure investments. However, in the long run, improving public transportation connectivity within Greater NYC will increase Midtown competitiveness by offering New Yorkers more options for residence and work. It is unclear whether this trend makes public authorities delay or boost new investments in regional infrastructure.
While Midtown has experienced a decline in regular visitors, it remains attractive to tourists due to its cultural brand and status as a leading destination. There is a possibility that Midtown will deviate from its CBD role and become a more powerful hub for creative and recreational activities.
In simple terms:
The rise of hybrid work has changed the mobility patterns of Midtown. For many, it is no longer just a regular commute but a more random and exploratory journey. The roles of settlements within Greater New York have changed, making Midtown less predictable, more spontaneous, less focused on corporates, and more geared towards recreation.
Is Midtown transitioning from a Central Business District (CBD) to a Central Activity District (CAD)? Will regional towns in the Greater NYC area being residences for hybrid workers impact the Midtown tenant structure? Will Midtown become more focused on recreation than business? Will reduced travel time for hybrid workers affect infrastructure investments? Could airport connections provide a competitive advantage for Midtown and suburban areas with hybrid work?
Marketing Midtown to new hybrid workers across the nation and the globe, attracting people for a quarter+ stay in Midtown may be a critical economic development strategy for municipal and regional authorities in order to keep a healthy corporate headquarters segment. One thing goes without a doubt — the City runs the Global economy here, not the municipal one.
Midtown remains to be a unique world corporate center, and it will continue to have strong demand for office space, even if this may not be the case for typical urban America. Hybrid work may make this demand even stronger as hybrid workers across America and the globe may choose to stay in Midtown for a quarter of the year or so, instead of coming to NYC for a week-long business trip. It is reasonable to expect that the office space in Midtown will have to go through a serious reformatting to accommodate the new hybrid work demand, but it is too early to call for the conversion of Midtown's office space into housing. Even if there might be some cases of such conversion, they will likely be in the up-market segment and will hardly solve the affordable housing shortage problem.